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Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington (“Grant PUD”), delivers power to over 54,000 active meters in one of Washington’s leading crop-producing counties. Built on hydropower from the Columbia River System dams dating back to mid-last century, Grant PUD has relied on this renewable resource to reliably and cost-effectively meet energy demand.
Washington state’s ambitious decarbonization goals under the 2019 Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA) and the Western Resource Adequacy Program (WRAP) reliability standards arrived at a pivotal time for Grant PUD. In need of resource planning and power procurement capabilities, Ascend Analytics (“Ascend”) provided an advanced Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling solution through PowerSIMM™, creating reliable clean energy pathways that minimized the long-term net revenue requirements required to cover their costs.
Grant County sits just east of the Cascade Mountain Range in Washington’s low desert. The Columbia River arcs around the county as a natural western border and has long served the region’s energy needs. Grant County relies on this river system to supply electric generation, mainly through the Wanapum (1,221.6 MW) and Priest Rapids (950 MW) dams. Since Grant PUD’s founding in 1938, Washington has grown into the largest hydroelectric producing state in the country.
In 2019, Washington Governor Jay Inslee signed the Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA), which committed Washington utilities to operate as greenhouse gas neutral by 2030 and supply 100% of electricity from renewable, non-carbon emitting sources by 2045. The Western Resource Adequacy Program (WRAP), proposed in the same year, became the first reliability program of its kind in the western U.S. For utilities to voluntarily join, they would need to demonstrate reliability contributions during tight grid conditions, making CETA and WRAP key drivers for Grant’s long term resource planning efforts.
Adding to these challenges, the dry winter of 2022/2023 heightened concerns about hydroelectric availability. While historical data showed stable production, climate trends— including warmer weather, earlier spring melts, and reduced summer generation—introduced new risks.
When the 2024 state-mandated Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) period arrived for public utilities to document their long-term planning processes, Grant PUD turned to Ascend Analytics. The team’s objective modeling ensured the District could develop a least-cost, least-risk plan that adhered to resource adequacy planning standards while meeting its load obligations, complying with the CETA clean energy standards, and preparing for future participation in WRAP. By capturing the physical complexities of weather as a fuel that simultaneously drives both load and renewable generation, Ascend’s modeling mitigated risk and minimized costs. Ascend’s ARS platform optimized the selected resource portfolio to maintain reliability, meet clean power requirements, and support long-term financial sustainability.
Ascend Analytics employed its PowerSIMM™ solution to model optimized resource pathways for Grant PUD. Using Automated Resource Selection (ARS) capacity expansion capabilities, PowerSIMM™ evaluated various supply portfolios to minimize costs and risks while meeting CETA and WRAP requirements.
Key features of the analysis included:
Ascend and Grant PUD identified that given the increasing number of renewables, gas plant retirements, significant increases in load forecasts due to data centers, electrificaiton, and cryptocurrency mining, the Washington market had begun to shift into a capacity-constrained system.
Figure 1 outlines one such pathway to reach CETA compliance beginning in 2030. The selected portfolio meets the primary compliance requirement (80% of sales to retail customers), and the alternative compliance (additional 20% of sales to retail customers), through the portfolio’s carbon-free generation.
Preparing for WRAP, the Ascend team applied a planning reserve margin ranging between 14.5% and 26.2% (varied by month) to forecast annual Grant PUD system peak load in the development and selection of the IRP’s resource plan. This planning capacity margin covers most of the prolonged resource outages, variations in weather and water availability, and uncertainty in load projections.
Figure 2 depicts how the selected portfolio satisfied Grant PUD’s expected WRAP capacity requirements on a monthly basis, starting in 2027.
To further analyze portfolio reliability, Grant PUD used PowerSIMM™’s loss of load modeling capability to isolate their system from market purchases at Mid-Columbia trading hub (Mid-C) and from capacity benefits achieved through WRAP participation. This is a conservative but industry standard approach.
The analysis estimated the reliability metrics of loss of load hours (LOLH), expected unserved energy (EUE), and loss of load probability (LOLP) for the selected portfolio. Loss of load hours occurred more frequently during the late summer through winter, especially during the morning and afternoon ramping hours. With Ascend’s expertise, this was Grant PUD’s first quantitative loss-of-load assessment as part of its resource planning process, establishing a data-driven foundation for addressing resource adequacy moving forward.
PowerSIMM's ARS capacity expansion model also allows clients to evaluate multiple scenarios by forcing specific resources into the mix and identifying the optimal portfolio under varying conditions. For Grant PUD, this capability was key to analyzing the economic and reliability impacts of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). These advanced nuclear reactors offer firm capacity alongside flexible, carbon-free electricity generation. With growing interest in the Pacific Northwest, SMRs are seen as a potential solution to meet the consistent, around-the-clock energy demands of data centers.
Grant PUD evaluated the addition of two 71 MW SMR units in 2034. ARS was used to fill in any gaps in reliability or CETA requirements. The least-cost portfolio under these assumptions is shown in Figure 3, which maps out the recommended timing of the needed resource acquisitions (1,010 MW in total). Through the analysis, Grant PUD identified that although the SMR portfolio reduces the total amount of nameplate capacity required to meet energy, capacity, and clean energy requirements, it remains significantly costlier. The SMR alternative scenario was estimated to have approximately $583 Million higher NPV of net present costs over the 2025-2045 period.
The results of the IRP identified Grant PUD’s needed actions for a least-cost solution to meet customer demand, WRAP resource adequacy requirements, and attainment of CETA and RPS compliance over the 2025-2045 planning horizon. The takeaways included:
Ascend administered the All-Source RFP, managed bid collection and evaluation, and advised Grant PUD through final short-listing, all within a single system. Using its proven RFP marketing playbook and extensive developer network, Ascend attracted strong participation and delivered competitive bids in a matter of weeks instead of months or years.
Grant PUD aimed to acquire short- and long-term proposals for renewable generation, gas fired generation, energy storage, and/or hybrid projects of at least 50 MW in size. After receiving approximately 80 offers, Ascend modeled every project to assess their economic value relative to Grant PUD’s portfolio and mission.
“Ascend’s solution quantified and communicated the value and risk of each project, enabling Grant PUD to confidently shortlist the right resources for its needs,” said Anthony Boukarim, Ascend Analytics’ Director of Resource Planning and Power Procurement.
The Pacific Northwest faces growing capacity challenges as slow transmission development and rising demand stretch resources—projects currently take over a decade to come online. To meet the region’s 100% clean energy goals by 2045, utilities must integrate flexible clean capacity resources, including storage, renewable fuels, and expanded solar and wind deployment, while ensuring reliability.
Hydroelectric resources remain the backbone of the region’s energy supply, but their complex, dispatchable nature requires advanced modeling to unlock full potential. Accurate resource planning must consider the region’s evolving market dynamics, balancing the trade-offs between reliability, climate goals, and cost-effectiveness.
Grant PUD partnered with Ascend to evaluate how its hydro-heavy portfolio could navigate the energy transition while maximizing long-term profitability and reliability. Ascend’s modeling expertise addressed key operational and environmental constraints for cascaded hydro resources, such as ramping limitations, flow requirements, non-linear elevation curves, seasonal reservoir targets, and inflow variability across timescales. Many traditional models overlook these critical factors for hydro resources, but Ascend’s PowerSIMM accounts for these complexities and can support other stakeholders operating in the Mid-C trading hub facing similar challenges.
PowerSIMM™ Suite is Ascend’s energy analytics solution for resource planning, valuation, and portfolio management. PowerSIMM™ incorporates variability in physical and market conditions, ensuring that decisions weigh and properly value future events. Utilities, public power entities, renewable developers, and community choice aggregators, utilize PowerSIMM™ for optimal energy portfolio management, resource planning and project optimization.
AEX Power Procurement enables energy buyers to meet climate and reliability goals by conducting automated and highly competitive power procurement processes, totaling more than the U.S. data center load each year. Designed for utilities, community choice aggregators, and corporate renewable energy buyers, AEX Power Procurement facilitates the process of executing PPAs by providing an RFP hosting service, shortening the processing time of bids, and evaluating offers with advanced modeling tools and analytics to capture project risks and true economic value.
Contact us today to learn more.
Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington (“Grant PUD”), delivers power to over 54,000 active meters in one of Washington’s leading crop-producing counties. Built on hydropower from the Columbia River System dams dating back to mid-last century, Grant PUD has relied on this renewable resource to reliably and cost-effectively meet energy demand.
Washington state’s ambitious decarbonization goals under the 2019 Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA) and the Western Resource Adequacy Program (WRAP) reliability standards arrived at a pivotal time for Grant PUD. In need of resource planning and power procurement capabilities, Ascend Analytics (“Ascend”) provided an advanced Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) modeling solution through PowerSIMM™, creating reliable clean energy pathways that minimized the long-term net revenue requirements required to cover their costs.
Grant County sits just east of the Cascade Mountain Range in Washington’s low desert. The Columbia River arcs around the county as a natural western border and has long served the region’s energy needs. Grant County relies on this river system to supply electric generation, mainly through the Wanapum (1,221.6 MW) and Priest Rapids (950 MW) dams. Since Grant PUD’s founding in 1938, Washington has grown into the largest hydroelectric producing state in the country.
In 2019, Washington Governor Jay Inslee signed the Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA), which committed Washington utilities to operate as greenhouse gas neutral by 2030 and supply 100% of electricity from renewable, non-carbon emitting sources by 2045. The Western Resource Adequacy Program (WRAP), proposed in the same year, became the first reliability program of its kind in the western U.S. For utilities to voluntarily join, they would need to demonstrate reliability contributions during tight grid conditions, making CETA and WRAP key drivers for Grant’s long term resource planning efforts.
Adding to these challenges, the dry winter of 2022/2023 heightened concerns about hydroelectric availability. While historical data showed stable production, climate trends— including warmer weather, earlier spring melts, and reduced summer generation—introduced new risks.
When the 2024 state-mandated Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) period arrived for public utilities to document their long-term planning processes, Grant PUD turned to Ascend Analytics. The team’s objective modeling ensured the District could develop a least-cost, least-risk plan that adhered to resource adequacy planning standards while meeting its load obligations, complying with the CETA clean energy standards, and preparing for future participation in WRAP. By capturing the physical complexities of weather as a fuel that simultaneously drives both load and renewable generation, Ascend’s modeling mitigated risk and minimized costs. Ascend’s ARS platform optimized the selected resource portfolio to maintain reliability, meet clean power requirements, and support long-term financial sustainability.
Ascend Analytics employed its PowerSIMM™ solution to model optimized resource pathways for Grant PUD. Using Automated Resource Selection (ARS) capacity expansion capabilities, PowerSIMM™ evaluated various supply portfolios to minimize costs and risks while meeting CETA and WRAP requirements.
Key features of the analysis included:
Ascend and Grant PUD identified that given the increasing number of renewables, gas plant retirements, significant increases in load forecasts due to data centers, electrificaiton, and cryptocurrency mining, the Washington market had begun to shift into a capacity-constrained system.
Figure 1 outlines one such pathway to reach CETA compliance beginning in 2030. The selected portfolio meets the primary compliance requirement (80% of sales to retail customers), and the alternative compliance (additional 20% of sales to retail customers), through the portfolio’s carbon-free generation.
Preparing for WRAP, the Ascend team applied a planning reserve margin ranging between 14.5% and 26.2% (varied by month) to forecast annual Grant PUD system peak load in the development and selection of the IRP’s resource plan. This planning capacity margin covers most of the prolonged resource outages, variations in weather and water availability, and uncertainty in load projections.
Figure 2 depicts how the selected portfolio satisfied Grant PUD’s expected WRAP capacity requirements on a monthly basis, starting in 2027.
To further analyze portfolio reliability, Grant PUD used PowerSIMM™’s loss of load modeling capability to isolate their system from market purchases at Mid-Columbia trading hub (Mid-C) and from capacity benefits achieved through WRAP participation. This is a conservative but industry standard approach.
The analysis estimated the reliability metrics of loss of load hours (LOLH), expected unserved energy (EUE), and loss of load probability (LOLP) for the selected portfolio. Loss of load hours occurred more frequently during the late summer through winter, especially during the morning and afternoon ramping hours. With Ascend’s expertise, this was Grant PUD’s first quantitative loss-of-load assessment as part of its resource planning process, establishing a data-driven foundation for addressing resource adequacy moving forward.
PowerSIMM's ARS capacity expansion model also allows clients to evaluate multiple scenarios by forcing specific resources into the mix and identifying the optimal portfolio under varying conditions. For Grant PUD, this capability was key to analyzing the economic and reliability impacts of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). These advanced nuclear reactors offer firm capacity alongside flexible, carbon-free electricity generation. With growing interest in the Pacific Northwest, SMRs are seen as a potential solution to meet the consistent, around-the-clock energy demands of data centers.
Grant PUD evaluated the addition of two 71 MW SMR units in 2034. ARS was used to fill in any gaps in reliability or CETA requirements. The least-cost portfolio under these assumptions is shown in Figure 3, which maps out the recommended timing of the needed resource acquisitions (1,010 MW in total). Through the analysis, Grant PUD identified that although the SMR portfolio reduces the total amount of nameplate capacity required to meet energy, capacity, and clean energy requirements, it remains significantly costlier. The SMR alternative scenario was estimated to have approximately $583 Million higher NPV of net present costs over the 2025-2045 period.
The results of the IRP identified Grant PUD’s needed actions for a least-cost solution to meet customer demand, WRAP resource adequacy requirements, and attainment of CETA and RPS compliance over the 2025-2045 planning horizon. The takeaways included:
Ascend administered the All-Source RFP, managed bid collection and evaluation, and advised Grant PUD through final short-listing, all within a single system. Using its proven RFP marketing playbook and extensive developer network, Ascend attracted strong participation and delivered competitive bids in a matter of weeks instead of months or years.
Grant PUD aimed to acquire short- and long-term proposals for renewable generation, gas fired generation, energy storage, and/or hybrid projects of at least 50 MW in size. After receiving approximately 80 offers, Ascend modeled every project to assess their economic value relative to Grant PUD’s portfolio and mission.
“Ascend’s solution quantified and communicated the value and risk of each project, enabling Grant PUD to confidently shortlist the right resources for its needs,” said Anthony Boukarim, Ascend Analytics’ Director of Resource Planning and Power Procurement.
The Pacific Northwest faces growing capacity challenges as slow transmission development and rising demand stretch resources—projects currently take over a decade to come online. To meet the region’s 100% clean energy goals by 2045, utilities must integrate flexible clean capacity resources, including storage, renewable fuels, and expanded solar and wind deployment, while ensuring reliability.
Hydroelectric resources remain the backbone of the region’s energy supply, but their complex, dispatchable nature requires advanced modeling to unlock full potential. Accurate resource planning must consider the region’s evolving market dynamics, balancing the trade-offs between reliability, climate goals, and cost-effectiveness.
Grant PUD partnered with Ascend to evaluate how its hydro-heavy portfolio could navigate the energy transition while maximizing long-term profitability and reliability. Ascend’s modeling expertise addressed key operational and environmental constraints for cascaded hydro resources, such as ramping limitations, flow requirements, non-linear elevation curves, seasonal reservoir targets, and inflow variability across timescales. Many traditional models overlook these critical factors for hydro resources, but Ascend’s PowerSIMM accounts for these complexities and can support other stakeholders operating in the Mid-C trading hub facing similar challenges.
PowerSIMM™ Suite is Ascend’s energy analytics solution for resource planning, valuation, and portfolio management. PowerSIMM™ incorporates variability in physical and market conditions, ensuring that decisions weigh and properly value future events. Utilities, public power entities, renewable developers, and community choice aggregators, utilize PowerSIMM™ for optimal energy portfolio management, resource planning and project optimization.
AEX Power Procurement enables energy buyers to meet climate and reliability goals by conducting automated and highly competitive power procurement processes, totaling more than the U.S. data center load each year. Designed for utilities, community choice aggregators, and corporate renewable energy buyers, AEX Power Procurement facilitates the process of executing PPAs by providing an RFP hosting service, shortening the processing time of bids, and evaluating offers with advanced modeling tools and analytics to capture project risks and true economic value.
Contact us today to learn more.
Ascend Analytics is the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the energy transition. The company's offerings enable decision makers in power development and supply procurement to maximize the value of planning, operating, and managing risk for renewable, storage, and other assets. From real-time to 30-year horizons, their forecasts and insights are at the foundation of over $50 billion in project financing assessments. Ascend provides energy market stakeholders with the clarity and confidence to successfully navigate the rapidly shifting energy landscape.
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