New Market Intelligence Forecast and Report from Ascend Analytics Examines Rapid Shifts in ERCOT Market Fundamentals

BOULDER, Colorado, July 18, 2024: Ascend Analytics (“Ascend”), a leading provider of energy transition analytics solutions, announces its flagship ERCOT Market Forecast and Report 5.1, the latest release from its proprietary Ascend Market Intelligence (“AscendMI™”) solution. Designed to support developers and financiers manage investment risks resulting from new market dynamics, the ERCOT Market Forecast and Report 5.1 explores how Texas will continue to experience more net load changes and demand imbalances. Exacerbated by significant load growth and scarcity conditions, ERCOT’s shifting market fundamentals are expected to result in highly volatile, but declining energy prices through the next few years, heightening both risks and opportunities for storage projects.  

Further key takeaways from the ERCOT Market Forecast and Report 5.1 include:

• Load is projected to grow rapidly, but there is significant uncertainty as to the magnitude of the growth. Forecasts range between 10 and 60GW of peak load growth by 2030.  

• Renewable capacity is expected to grow significantly, with solar capacity alone growing an additional 20 GW between 2024 and 2027.

• Coal generation is projected to retire by the mid-2030s, with resource economics driving the energy transition in Texas after the load boom subsides.

• ERCOT is not a uniform market, with sharp price gradients and volatility across the state reflecting stark regional variances in generation, transmission, and energy demand.

• Scarcity risk is evolving. Shorter-term load-growth pressures are expected to surge, calling into question ERCOT’s ability to bring supply to meet its load interconnection demand. Scarcity hours are also shifting into the evenings as the scarcity season is extending longer.  

"Everything is bigger in Texas and the energy transition underway in ERCOT is no exception,” said Brent Nelson, Ascend Analytics’ Managing Director of Markets and Strategy. “Renewables are replacing thermal generation as the market’s new baseload energy source, creating entirely new market dynamics for developers and investors to navigate. Energy storage will be a big beneficiary of this transition, but the month-to-month and year-to-year variation in revenue will be significant and highly weather-dependent.”  

As a foundational component of Ascend’s full spectrum decision-making platform for the energy transition, AscendMI™ and its series of market reports provide independent and proprietary forecasts to support project financing. The flagship ERCOT Market Forecast and Report 5.1 explores topics including:

• How population inflow, increasing industrial activity, electrification, and severe weather continue to escalate load growth and scarcity conditions.  

• The expected impacts of relevant policy and market changes such as the Texas Energy Fund and the Performance Credit Mechanism.  

• The flexible resource opportunities that emerge in response to growing price volatility.  

• The ongoing saturation of the ancillary services markets.  

• Solar generation’s impact on price shapes and real-time volatility during evening net load ramps.  

• Regional analysis of renewable generation buildout and the corresponding congestion that will emerge.

For those interested in learning more about ERCOT’s rapidly evolving market fundamentals, visit Ascend Analytics Store or Contact Us | Ascend Analytics to book a meeting with one of our Market Intelligence Experts.

About Ascend Market Intelligence (“AscendMI™)

AscendMI™ (Ascend Market Intelligence) delivers proprietary power market forecasts that reflect the new market dynamics driving the energy transition. AscendMI™ provides 20+ year forecasts for day-ahead and real-time power prices for all major US trading hubs and market nodes, including the WECC and SERC, as well as select locations in Western Europe. AscendMI integrates into Ascend’s BatterySIMM and PowerSIMM platforms, enabling users to incorporate dynamic market forecasting into their energy portfolio decision-making processes. AscendMI forecasts have been trusted in hundreds of projects and resource planning activities, supporting over $25 billion in project financing assessments.

Media Contact: media@ascendanalytics.com

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Ascend Analytics is the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the energy transition. The company’s offerings enable decision makers in power supply, procurement, and investment markets to plan, operate, monetize, and manage risk across any energy asset portfolio. From real-time to 30-year horizons, their forecasts and insights are at the foundation of over $50 billion in project financing assessments. Ascend provides energy market stakeholders with the clarity and confidence to successfully navigate the rapidly shifting energy landscape.